Trendspotting Tesla Q3: 241,300 deliveries, +20% q/q, 96% Model 3/Y and 4% Model S/X

Despite the economic headwinds and daunting supply chain challenges Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) appears to be still executing well. At least if we consider its latest deliveries report.

Today, the EV maker revealed its Q3 production and delivery numbers (Tesla IR). Here’s how they look:

  • Total Production: 237,823
  • Total Deliveries: 241, 300

And the product mix by platform:

  • Model S/X: 9,275 (3.8%)
  • Model 3/Y: 232,025 (96.2%)

In Q2 Tesla delivered 201,250 vehicles. With Q3 at 241,300 that means q/q growth comes in at about 20%. Needless to say that’s pretty impressive. And should be good news for those not only following CEO Elon Musk and team, but also the industry as a whole.

Still, Tesla Investor Relations notes that this information doesn’t tell the whole story about Q3:

“Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.”

Also, the numbers could fluctuate by up to 0.5% “or more” depending on paperwork.

Wall Street was expecting deliveries to come in at about 225,000-230,000 (Barron’s).

Stark Insider Take

I’m an unabashed Tesla fan — and MY owner — so let’s get that disclosure out of the way up front.

Nevertheless, it’s hard to imagine how this can’t be perceived as very positive news. To have a 20% q/q growth in the midst of a pandemic with severe supply chain challenges, price shocks, and, especially lately, a challenged stock market and economy (jobs report), is a feat perhaps not many would have predicted.

Of course, there’s plenty more to factor into Q3. Many will be watching the regulatory credits impact on revenue once again, and other factors that could potentially haze real underlying financial performance and long-term health.

Barron’s appears to be giving the company a passing grade for the quarter — at least in terms of deliveries:

“Overall, Tesla has appear to have passed the third quarter delivery test. And more cars delivered should mean analysts take earnings estimates up for third quarter earnings. That might be the reason Tesla stock is strong following earnings.”

Meantime, Tesla continues to update and rollout beta versions of its — extremely controversial — Full Self Driving (FSD) autopilot technology. GM reportedly is facing delays for its Super Cruise in the upcoming Escalade EV due to the chip shortage. Given the headstart Tesla has over the competition, if Musk and team can figure this out, FSD could provide for a huge advantage. Time will tell.

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