Academy Awards Oscar predictions 2009

    oscarWill you struggle to watch the whole 81st Academy Awards show tonight, or just FF with your DVR? I will probably do the latter, work on my laptop and get a jump on the week that will be.

    As if Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie need more attention or accolades. Both, yes both, are nominated. What’s the conversation like at dinner… how was your day? Oh, just picked up an Academy Award, adopted another child, injected my lips, and cashed another $20M check.

    In any case, not that I’m some kind of prognosticator, here are my predictions for who will win the big categories.

    Best Director
    • Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) – yes, it might just be a breakthrough Bollywood year
    • David Fincher (Benjamin Button)
    • Gus Van Sant (Milk)
    • Stephen Daldry (The Reader)
    • Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
    Best Actor
    • Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) – this would be at least his 5th win if it wasn’t for an odd boxing career detour
    • Sean Penn (Milk)
    • Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
    • Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button)
    • Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)

    Best Actress
    • Kate Winslet (The Reader)
    • Meryl Streep (Doubt) – my upset pick, as I believe Winslet is favored
    • Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
    • Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
    • Melissa Leo (Frozen River)
    Best Supporting Actor
    • Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) – the reaction will be interesting if he wins
    • Robert Downey Jr (Tropic Thunder)
    • Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
    • Josh Brolin (Milk)
    • Michale Shannon (Revolutionary Road)
    Best Supporting Actress
    • Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
    • Viola Davis (Doubt)
    • Taraji P. Henson (Benjamin Button)
    • Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler) – a longshot I think, but it would be good to see her win
    • Amy Adams (Doubt) 
    Best Picture
    • Slumdog Millionaire – too much buzz, too quirky, too colorful not to win
    • Milk
    • The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    • Frost/Nixon
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    • Clinton Stark

      My final score: 3 out of 6 right.<br />
      <br />
      So flipping a coin would've been likely just as effective.

    • My final score: 3 out of 6 right.

      So flipping a coin would’ve been likely just as effective.

      • I think your affections for the underdog/comeback kid, Mickey Rourke, colored your choice and you went for the sentimental pick.

        It would be interesting to understand the decision dynamics on choosing the winner. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is more random than we would like to believe.

        If Jonah Lehrer, author of “How we Decide” were to comment on this, I would predict he would say most of the judges already have an opinion on who they would like to win and then use data points to rationalize and support their initial beliefs.

    • My final score: 3 out of 6 right.

      So flipping a coin would’ve been likely just as effective.

      • I think your affections for the underdog/comeback kid, Mickey Rourke, colored your choice and you went for the sentimental pick.

        It would be interesting to understand the decision dynamics on choosing the winner. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is more random than we would like to believe.

        If Jonah Lehrer, author of “How we Decide” were to comment on this, I would predict he would say most of the judges already have an opinion on who they would like to win and then use data points to rationalize and support their initial beliefs.

    • Loni Kao Stark

      I think your affections for the underdog/comeback kid, Mickey Rourke, colored your choice and you went for the sentimental pick.<br />
      <br />
      It would be interesting to understand the decision dynamics on choosing the winner. I wouldn't be surprised if it is more random than we would like to believe. <br />
      <br />
      If Jonah Lehrer, author of &quot;How we Decide&quot; were to comment on this, I would predict he would say most of the judges already have an opinion on who they would like to win and then use data points to rationalize and support their initial beliefs.